Blinken’s consequential diplomatic tightrope walk in Israel

On a powerful trip to Israel, Secretary Antony Blinken reiterated U.S. support in the face of the worst terrorist attack on that country in 50 years. But there is still a long road ahead that includes sensitive and incredibly important conversations with other leaders in the region. This trip could have a dramatic impact on what the next few months and even years look like in the Middle East.

Every crisis and every conflict is different. I worked at the State Department during President Barack Obama’s second term; we faced a conflict in Israel, the rise of ISIS in Syria, millions of displaced refugees and online propaganda videos of American hostages being beheaded. So I know from experience that the conversations happening behind closed doors are often more consequential than what we see in public.

Hostages are one of the highest priorities for President Joe Biden and for Secretary Blinken. But there is a good reason the Biden administration has been quiet about what they are doing to bring Americans being held by Hamas home. The more they say and the more specifics they provide, the less likely they will be successful. Countries including Qatar and Turkey talk directly with Hamas and could serve as important intermediaries. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has done prisoner-for-hostages trades before, it is not clear what if any negotiation in this case is possible.

The situation on the ground in Israel is more complex and complicated than almost any hostage situation. Gaza is an active war zone as Israel warns of a ground invasion, and Hamas will likely attempt to use kidnapping victims as human shields. 

There is also a real fear within national security circles that the conflict could escalate and expand across the Middle East. The impact of a ground invasion in Gaza will be felt across the region. When you are the secretary of state during this crisis, part of your goal is to encourage calm among countries who have historically been sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians and to ask those who have influence over and connection to Hezbollah, and other groups in the region, to not join the fight.

Finally, there is a growing refugee and humanitarian crisis with more than 400,000 Palestinians already displaced. So far no country seems willing to take in large numbers of refugees from Gaza, so Blinken will also be encouraging neighboring countries to play a role in welcoming civilians who have nowhere else to go. 

NBC News confirmed this week that the White House has now blocked the $6 billion in aid that was authorized last month to be used for humanitarian purposes in Iran. In doing so, the president is putting Iran on notice — whether or not it was directly involved in the horrific attack on Israel, Hamas wouldn’t exist without Iranian support. 

The move should finally put an end to the political and misleading posturing we’ve seen, mainly from the GOP, that tried to blame the Biden administration for helping fund Hamas via the Iranian aid. In truth, that $6 billion certainly didn’t come from American taxpayers, as some Republicans have falsely claimed. And Biden authorized that the money only be dispensed by non-Iranian third-party vendors with strict oversight by the U.S. Treasury Department. 

Lastly, not a dollar of that money was spent before it was refrozen this week. 

Of course, all of this largely fell on deaf ears in the GOP, which found the opportunity to criticize Biden far more irresistible than reporting the actual facts.

Given that the funds are once again frozen, it should now be a moot point — but don’t be surprised if some Republicans insist on beating a dead horse. 

The staggering death toll of Hamas’ terror attack includes more than 1,300 people killed in Israel and 150 people kidnapped as hostages. At least 27 Americans are among the dead. 

Our NBC News correspondents are on the ground in Israel and surrounding regions, reporting on the latest developments tirelessly and fearlessly. 

Make sure you follow MSNBC Chief Correspondent Ali Velshi, NBC News Foreign Correspondent News Raf Sanchez, NBC News Correspondent Ellison Barber, NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel, NBC News London Correspondent Kelly Cobiella, Foreign Correspondent at NBC News & MSNBC Josh Lederman and Matt Bradley.